WORLD-POPULATION, ECONOMIC-GROWTH, AND ENERGY DEMAND, 1990-2100 - A REVIEW OF PROJECTIONS

The 1993 World Energy Council (WEC) projections for world population in 2100 are compared with those of the United Nations, and the long-term implications of population growth are discussed. The World Energy Council projections for primary energy consumption in 2020 are presented, and supplementary projections based on other rates of economic growth are given. The WEC illustrative scenarios for energy consumption in 2100 are described, and an additional scenario is given, based on a lower assessment of the contribution from new renewable energy sources. The projections for atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and rise in global mean temperature in 2100 are summarized. It is concluded that world energy consumption in 2100 will probably be more than double the 1990 figure, that half of it will be supplied by fossil fuels, and that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration compared with the preindustrial level is unavoidable.