SURVEY EVIDENCE ON THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST-RATES

This article tests various hypotheses concerning the determinants of the 3-, 6-, and 9-month horizon term premia. The term premia are computed using the forecasts of the 3-month Treasury bill rate from the survey conducted by the American Statistical Association in collaboration with the National Bureau of Economic Research. We find that the term premia are influenced by the level of interest rates and cyclical factors in addition to the level of rates. They are also influenced by government economic policy. © 1991.