Remaining useful life of natural gas export compressors

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to predict the remaining useful life of a natural gas export compressor, in order to assist decision making of the next planned work order. Design/methodology/approach - Extraction and aggregation of information from rapid developing condition-monitoring systems has given rise to the Technical Condition Index (TCI) methodology. The trends of aggregated TCIs at compressor level and historical work orders were used as the basis for remaining useful life estimation. Findings - The model is merging several condition-related measurements and quantifying belief in aging versus belief in condition monitoring. This is important information in, for example, maintenance policy selection, and for the choice of a remaining useful life approach. Practical implications - The model requires historical failure data and well documented condition-related measurements. Investigation of the physics of failure at the component level also seems important for prognostic theory development. Originality/value - The proposed methodology combines the TCI methodology, the survival analysis (PHM) methodology, and the general maximum-likelihood theory to estimate and validate parameters and remaining useful life.