DIAGNOSING AND FORECASTING TOTAL COLUMN OZONE BY STATISTICAL RELATIONS

The need for forecasting the level of harmful UVB radiation has stimulated the search for strong and reliable relations between total column ozone and suitable meteorological parameters. It is shown that daily total column ozone can be predicted regionally in midlatitudes with an uncertainty of about 15 Dobson units (DU; 1 DU = 2.69 x 10(-16) molecules cm(-2)). Maximum deviations are of the order of +/-20 DU. Deviations of more than about 20 DU between prediction and occurrence are traced back to doubtful measurements, ground-based as well as satellite. The proposed regressions are hence a suitable tool to check the quality of satellite retrievals and of current and historic Dobson series.