A DYNAMIC-MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE FALLING NUMBER OF WHEAT GRAINS IN SCANDINAVIAN CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

A dynamic model based on daily climatological data enabling the prediction of changes in falling number during grain filling has been developed. The feasibility of the dynamic model was tested with three spring wheat varieties in Scandinavian growing conditions. The goodness of fit of the model in describing starch quality as measured by falling number was highly significant for two of the three tested varieties (Atle and Norrona; R2 = 0.90). The falling number of the variety Svenno was generally low and the model was unable to predict the small changes in falling number (R2 = 0.40) occurring due to fluctuations in daily climatic conditions. However, we are presently developing a more comprehensive model through inclusion of variables such as changes in endogenous growth regulator balances before dormancy, the effect of lodging, and the damage caused by the orange wheat blossom midge.